LONDON — The value of the British pound is surging late on Tuesday morning after Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed that she will seek to hold a general election on June 8.

In an unusual move, May delivered a speech outside Number 10 Downing Street with just over one hour's warning, confirming that she will present a motion to the House of Commons to hold the election. The government needs a two-thirds majority in parliament in order to formally call an election.

After it was announced just after 10.00 a.m. BST (5.00 a.m. ET) that May would make a statement, sterling dropped significantly, but has pulled higher since the announcement of an election and by 2.20 p.m. BST (9.20 a.m. ET) is higher by more than 1.2% to trade at 1.2725 against the dollar. That is its highest level since December 2016.

Here is the chart:

"The government is obviously very confident that an early election will strengthen its hand, but as we’ve learned time and again in recent years, nothing is for certain when voters head to the polls," Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe said.

"Today’s announcement adds enough uncertainty into the political outlook that a sterling friendly 'soft Brexit', previously discounted by markets, is now again a possibility if May discovers in June she has overplayed her hand."

May's call for a general election has prompted Deutsche Bank — which has consistently been one of the most bearish sterling forecasters since the vote — to change course and announce that it is unwinding its bearish trades on the pound.

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UK Prime Minister Theresa May surprised the world April 18 by reversing course on an earlier promise and calling for early general elections in the UK parliament.

The political bombshell has added a new layer of uncertainty to a fraught Brexit process. While May and other leavers pitch their referendum victory as one of sovereignty over Europe, the truth is increasingly clear: Britain’s global role is much diminished without the cover of its EU partnership.

Really, it’s just another small island with an outsized finance sector.

The pound, battered since the Brexit referendum last summer, rebounded on the news. But according to a new report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the pound’s devaluation is mostly here to stay because it reflects a deeper perception of Britain’s loss of economic prowess.

"The pound depreciated sharply immediately following the Brexit vote. This reflects market beliefs that Brexit would lead to a persistent decline in the real value of the pound," wrote Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy at the University of California, Berkeley and Galina Hale, a research advisor at the San Francisco Fed.

Sterling’s decline may have some short run benefits, the authors noted.

"A weaker pound gives a boost to both exporting and import-competing industries. One expected immediate effect of Brexit will be to stimulate the manufacturing sector at the expense of the financial industry. Moreover, the depreciation of the pound provides a one-time valuation gain for foreign currency-denominated assets held by U.K. residents," they said.

They cited one estimate showing the UK’s net international investment position had improved by roughly 25% of GDP, "a significant windfall."

Still, the long-run trend may not be as rosy.

"Despite a possible boost to manufacturing exports and some valuation gains, the depreciation of the pound since the Brexit vote must reflect expectations of slower growth for the U.K. economy in the next few years and beyond," Gourinchas and Hale wrote. "While some groups may gain from Brexit, the message from the foreign exchange and asset markets is clear: The overall size of the economy will eventually shrink relative to what it could have been if the United Kingdom had voted to stay in the EU."

And while British stocks rallied in the months after the vote, that improvement needs to be adjusted for the currency’s drop. "Given that the stock market captures investors’ long-run expectations, one might be surprised that the broad U.K. stock market index rebounded strongly after the initial drop in the wake of the vote. However, the FTSE lost significant ground relative to the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 and German DAX when measured in US dollar terms."

FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga is similarly cautious about sterling’s immediate rebound following May’s call for a vote: "While short-term bulls may reign as a result of this fresh development, longer-term bears could exploit the potential political uncertainty to drag Sterling lower," he wrote in a note to clients. "A very strong likelihood remains that sterling sensitivity will intensify moving forward, with a vote in parliament on Wednesday to decide whether or not the election will take place acting as the first test."

Britain's FTSE 100 stock index had its worst day since June 2016, as the surging pound wreaked havoc with equity investors.

SEE ALSO: The FTSE 100 just had its worst day since the week after the Brexit vote

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LONDON — The pound's sharp appreciation in the aftermath of Prime Minister Theresa May's call for a general election on Tuesday could be "vulnerable to a swift reversal," as the possible implications of the early vote become more clear to investors.

That's according to Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, writing on Tuesday evening.

Tombs argues that the most likely outcome of the election — namely a drastically increased Conservative party majority — actually increases the likelihood of Britain heading for what he calls an "ultra-hard Brexit." That, he says, would be a major downside for the British economy.

"We think that sterling's rally yesterday is vulnerable to a swift reversal, as markets appreciate that the chances of an ultra-hard Brexit also rise with a larger Conservative majority, and investors recoil in response to additional political uncertainty," Tombs writes in a special edition of Pantheon's UK Macro Monitor.

Sterling appreciated by more than 2% on Tuesday, passing above 1.28 on the dollar and climbing to levels not seen since December 2016. 

That partly was fuelled by a belief in the markets that May increasing her majority will allow her to take a more conciliatory stance on Brexit, and move away from the sort of Brexit favoured by hardline Conservative MPs, who currently have a disproportionate influence on policy thanks to the party's slim majority.

Pantheon suggests however, that the opposite could actually occur. Here is Tombs once again: 

"An increased majority, however, also would enable her to ignore the handful of pro-Remain MPs in her own party who previously sought to maintain the status quo, constraining her room for manoeuvre."

"But assuming Mrs. May is victorious in June, she could wait until June 2022 to hold the next election, giving her Government more time to negotiate trade deals with other countries after Brexit, boosting the chance of an economic revival even after a very hard departure from the EU."

Pantheon's argument comes shortly after Deutsche Bank — which has been consistently one of the most pessimistic sterling forecasters since the Brexit vote — reversed course on its "structurally bearish" view of the currency.

"We have been structurally bearish on sterling for the last two years but are now changing view," George Saravelos, Deutsche's global co-head of FX research said.

Sterling is broadly flat on Wednesday as investors take a breather following Tuesday's rollercoaster day. As of 9.10 a.m. BST (4.10 a.m. ET), it is off 0.2% against the dollar to trade at $1.2821.

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LONDON — The pound is climbing a little on Thursday, but is relatively calm, marginally extending the big gains already seen since Prime Minister Theresa May called for a general election to be held on June 8. May called for the election on Tuesday, sending the pound over 2% higher on the day. 

It then saw a broadly flat day on Wednesday as parliament voted to approve the election, but began to pick up again on Thursday morning gaining more than 0.3% on the dollar in morning trading to hit $1.2825. It has since pulled back a little from those highs, and is trading just below $1.28 as of 12.15 p.m. BST (7.15 a.m. ET).

Here is the chart:

Sterling's rally since May's has been partially driven by a belief in the markets that May increasing her majority will allow her to take a more conciliatory stance on Brexit, and move away from the sort of Brexit favoured by hardline Conservative MPs, who currently have a disproportionate influence on policy thanks to the party's slim majority.

That has led certain forecasters to take a more bullish view on the currency, with Deutsche Bank reserving their long-held bearish call on sterling in the aftermath of the vote call.

US banking giant is also taking a positive view on the currency, with FX strategist Sheena Shah writing on Wednesday:

"Stabilisation of GBP has already started, which should aid inflows into the currency. Notably, FX reserve managers have started to move out of the EUR and into GBP. Our estimations suggest the market has priced in a lot of the negativity associated with Brexit, with today’s developments starting to reverse some of that pricing."

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LONDON — Just as things looked like they were starting to get back to normal for the British pound, the calling of a general election by the Conservative government has flipped the currency on its head for the second time in less than 10 months.

Having previously been a cyclical currency, and moving on major economic events like data releases and interest decisions, in the second half of 2016 sterling became part of a growing trend of currencies being driven not by such events, but rather by political developments, especially those related to Brexit.

In the last handful of months it looked to have bucked that pattern, trading on data releases and calendar events, and only moving small amounts in those instances. However, with an election now just seven weeks away, politics looks set to become the dominant force driving Britain's currency once again.

Since the election was called, Britain has only had one significant data release — retail sales numbers from the Office for National Statistics on Friday.

Those numbers were bad to say the least, with sales dropping 1.8% in the month of March, and seeing their third consecutive decrease on a three-month by three-month basis. Sterling, however, barely shifted, dropping around 0.16% from its pre-release levels.

By contrast, the day that Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would seek an election sterling roared higher, reflecting a belief in the markets that May increasing her majority will allow her to take a more conciliatory stance on Brexit, and move away from the sort of Brexit favoured by hardline Conservative MPs, who currently have a disproportionate influence on policy thanks to the party's slim majority.

Sterling had broadly stopped reacting to major political developments in recent weeks — at least in as strong a manner as it did during the first few months after the referendum. For instance, when Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 of the treaty on European Union, formally beginning the process of Brexit, sterling hardly budged.

Now the election has been called, expect that to change. Polls showing strong support for the Conservatives will likely boost sterling, while any hint that Labour could have a realistic chance of shrinking the Tory majority should bump the pound lower.

This means that broadly speaking moves in the pound are likely to be higher, rather than lower.

That is a view held by Deutsche Bank, one of the most pessimistic forecasters on the pound since Britain voted to leave the European Union, which has changed course on its "structurally bearish" view of the currency.

Writing on Tuesday, George Saravelos Deutsche's global co-head of FX research called the election a "game-changer" when it comes to sterling.

Forecasters predicting a rise in sterling — at least in the short term — are now in the majority, with most economists seemingly seeing the pound remaining at its current level at the least, with one forecaster, Morgan Stanley, even arguing for a $1.45 valuation by the end of 2017. That would but it within just 2% of its pre-referendum level.

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LONDON — The pound has cratered against the US dollar ever since Britain voted to leave the European Union on June 23 last year.

But while that has a negative effect on Brits' purchasing power, it is actually having a seriously positive impact on another sector in Britain's economy — employment.

That is according to Sam Bowman, the executive director of one of the world's prominent think tanks, the Adam Smith Institute, who spoke at a local Conservative party conference in East Croydon, which Business Insider attended on Saturday.

He was talking about how Brexit is expected to affect the UK economy over the short and long term and looked at both positive and negative impacts from Britain planning to leave the European Union.

"Probably many people in this room are like me — frustrated by the tone of the Brexit debate, even eight or nine months after the referendum," said Bowman.

"It feels like the referendum debate has never ended. On one side we have around 10% some extremely die-hard leavers, who refuse to accept there could be any difficulty on leaving the European Union. And then there is 10% extremely die-hard remainers who refuse to admit there would be any benefits from leaving the European Union.

"In the middle, I think, is the rest of us — 80% who accept the result and want to make Brexit work but also want to acknowledge that it is not necessarily going to be an easy ride."

He also talked about how Brexit has already had an impact on the UK economy. But it is not all bad. Bowman said he is a "short term pessimist but a long term optimist about Brexit."

Here is an excerpt from his speech:

"I think employment is likely to be quite strong. It is unlikely that [Brexit] will cause any large scale unemployment. even in a very, very pessimistic outcome — the reason for that being the pound has absorbed most of the costs, meaning that we effectively have real term wage cuts and our purchasing power falls but people become more employable as a result. So there are good and bad [aspects] to the fall in the pound."

The pound against the US dollar tanked in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum vote. While it has recently gained a little bit of ground to reach $1.28, it is still a far cry from the $1.50 last seen in June last year:

Since the Brexit vote, various economists and financial institutions predicted that the UK's unemployment rate will shoot up as a result of the vote to leave. Credit Suisse, for example, predicts an increase to 6.5% for the base rate, equivalent to roughly 500,000 jobs being lost. However, the last few months have seen the rate remain near its record low and Wednesday's figures show the trend appears to be holding up.

Unemployment in the UK fell once again in March, according to the latest data released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday.

Headline unemployment fell was 4.7% in the month while employment remained unchanged at 74.6% in the month, equalling a record high set in both January and February, but not seen before that since records began in 1971.

However, wage growth is still poor.

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LONDON — Sterling is losing some of its earlier momentum against the dollar on Friday morning after worse than expected GDP figures.

The pound rose strongly against the dollar in early trade on Friday to reach as high as $1.2944. But sterling is pulling back after GDP figures released at 9.30 a.m. BST (4.30 a.m. ET) showed the economy grew by just 0.3% in the first quarter, less than economists expected.

Here's how the pound looks against the dollar at 9.38 a.m. BST (4.38 a.m. ET):

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Hong Kong (AFP) - A Hong Kong property developer has confirmed the near completion of its almost $1.5 billion purchase of London's "Cheesegrater" tower, as it takes advantage of the pound's slump to snap up addresses in the British capital.

C C Land's acquisition of the 224-metres-high Leadenhall Building, which earned its nickname from its wedge shape, is the biggest single property purchase in the UK since 2014, when a Qatari wealth fund bought London's HSBC Tower for £1.2 billion ($1.5 billion at current exchange rates). 

The deal takes advantage of the slump in the pound, which plunged after the country voted to leave the European Union in June 2016 and is currently trading roughly 12 percent lower against the dollar. 

"Devaluation of the pound sterling is one of the major factors to draw interests to this market," C C Land said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange on May 1, confirming the $1.47 billion purchase from real estate giant British Land and Oxford Properties.

"Both leasing as well as investment demands in prime office buildings have remained strong," the firm said in the filing.

Britain's economic growth has slowed to its weakest pace in a year, as the country prepares for a general election overshadowed by its planned exit from the European Union.

But C C Land said London was still an attractive place for investors from around the world, particularly from the Asian region.

The Hong Kong-based firm said the purchase was part of their business strategy "in investing in quality property developments in mature cities globally" and that it would generate "stable and strong recurrent income".

Completion of the deal is subject to the passing of the resolution by C C Land shareholders at an upcoming special general meeting on May 18.

Chinese and Hong Kong investors spent £2.9 billion ($3.7 at current exchange rates) -- more than buyers from any other region -- on central London offices in 2016, broker Knight Frank said in a February report cited by Bloomberg News.

Other investors have also said they will be investing in a post-Brexit UK.

Qatar announced in March it will invest $6.23 billion in energy, infrastructure, real estate and services within five years. 

Construction of the Leadenhall Building, the tallest in the City of London business district, was completed in 2014 but was officially opened during a ceremony in 2015 attended by Britain's Prince William and Prince Harry.

The building's unusual shape is a result of London's strict rules on protected sightlines.

Tenants include insurers Aon and MS Amlin and the building's architects, Rogers Stirk Harbour and Partners.

The building was part the city's biggest architectural shake-up since the 19th century when a new wave of high-rises built in the financial quarter reshaped the skyline. 

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LONDON — A new survey showed that 45% of British people do not fully understand the consequences Brexit could have on the economy.

The survey, by the ING Economics Network, asked 1,700 people questions about their understanding of economics and basic issues facing the British economy, as well as how they access economic news.

The findings shed some interesting light on the UK's understanding of big economic issues.

"On Brexit, only 42% of respondents report that they understand the main economic consequences, outweighed by the 45% reporting that they do not understand them," the report, created in collaboration with the Royal Economic Society showed.

Brits largely reported being more clued up about the impacts of the falling pound — which has pushed up inflation, making everyday goods more expensive and squeezing UK consumers — since the Brexit vote, as the chart below illustrates:

The UK economy had fared better than all but the most optimistic of forecasters imagined in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, confounding predictions of an immediate recession, and ticking along with an almost complete disregard for the uncertainty created by the vote.

However, last week official GDP figures showed  UK GDP growth slowing to just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2017.

After close to 10 months of shockingly strong growth, the numbers confirmed what economists had been predicting for a long time — that Brexit will have a materially negative impact on the British economy. 

The slowdown in GDP reflects a slowing of the consumer boom that has fuelled the country's economic performance in the past handful of years.

With inflation set to rise further over the course of 2017, that consumer slowdown could intensify.

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LONDON — The pound has dropped sharply on Wednesday afternoon after Prime Minister Theresa May accused the European Union of deliberately trying to influence the outcome of the UK's upcoming general election by leaking anti-Brexit materials.

Speaking after a meeting with the Queen to formally dissolve parliament ahead of the election, May said in a statement delivered outside Downing Street that she believes: "There are some in Brussels who don't want Britain to prosper."

In recent days "Britain’s negotiating position has been misrepresented in the European press," May said.

"The events of the last few days have shown that some in Brussels do not want these talks to succeed."

Sterling — which fell in morning trade, before recovering to close to flat early in the afternoon — dropped sharply during the statement, falling below the $1.29 mark in the process to trade at $1.2892 as of around 3.50 p.m. BST, a fall of 0.37% from the open.

Here is the chart:

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LONDON — The pound is little moved on Friday as results show solid gains for the Conservative Party in local elections held on Thursday in the UK.

With results in 4,851 council seats plus six regional mayoral contests expected on Friday, the elections give a good indication of how voters are feeling ahead of the general election in five weeks and may signal how big the Conservative Party's majority will be after the June vote.

Signs also suggest that the Labour Party has endured big losses across the country, while UKIP looks virtually spent as an electoral force after the Brexit vote.

The pound, however, has failed to react strongly to results, and by around 11.40 a.m. BST (6.40 a.m. ET) is virtually flat against the dollar, trading at $1.2939, an upward move of 0.15% from the day's open.

Here is the chart:

Away from the pound, in focus for the markets on Friday is the monthly jobs report out of the USA. Economists are anticipating a rebound in job growth after an unexpected dip in March capped off what we now know was the worst quarter for the US economy in three years.

You can follow Business Insider's full coverage of the election results here.

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LONDON — The biggest and most obvious financial impact for regular Brits since the UK voted to leave the EU last June has been the huge drop in the value of the pound against virtually every other major currency around the world.

Sterling witnessed the largest single intraday drop against the dollar in its history the morning after the vote and continued to drop for several months afterward.

Those months were filled with wild swings in value, a flash crash and a shift from being driven by economic data releases, to moving on political developments, especially those related to Brexit.

Britain's currency now appears to be recovering to some extent and is threatening to break above 1.30 against the dollar for the first time since September last year. However, what happens to sterling in the future — with hurdles like Brexit and the upcoming general election clouding the picture — is anybody's guess.

To find out what might happen to the pound, Business Insider rounded up forecasts from banks, economic research houses, and trading firms about which way they think sterling is headed over the medium-term.

Most have recently increased their forecasts, largely on the assumption that Theresa May's Conservative Party will win an increased majority at June's election, paving the way for her to take a more conciliatory stance on Brexit, and move away from the sort of Brexit favoured by hardline Conservative MPs, who currently have a disproportionate influence on policy thanks to the party's slim majority.

However, many have raised forecasts from a very low baseline, and as a result, still expect the pound to end 2017 lower than it is currently trading.

Check out the forecasts of economists, analysts, and strategists below (all forecasts are for the pound against the dollar unless otherwise specified):

Daniel Morris, Senior Investment Strategist at BNP Paribas Investment Partners

Forecast: Stronger by the end of 2017, no precise forecast

What they say: "The likely electoral impact on Sterling depends on whether an increased Conservative majority (as the polls expect) leads to a 'harder' or 'softer' Brexit.  The argument for a softer Brexit (which supposedly explains Sterling’s initial rise following the announcement of the election) is that with a larger majority, the Prime Minister will have greater flexibility to negotiate an agreement with Brussels that avoids the potentially more negative aspects of leaving the EU, with subsequent Parliamentary approval and freedom from the constraints of the hard Brexiteers," Morris said in analysis sent to Business Insider.

"The counter narrative - it is worth noting that sterling has given up its initial post-election announcement gains against the euro, even though it has held up against the dollar - is that newly-elected MPs are more likely to support a hard Brexit, thereby increasing the likelihood of Britain reaching such an agreement.  We think that a hard Brexit was already priced into the markets, and for the time being the prospect of a softer Brexit will drive the currency higher, unless the economic data weakens decisively.  That weakness may be appearing, given that first quarter GDP data came in below expectations.  So even if negotiations move in Britain’s favour, the economy might not cooperate."

Chris Turner, Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at ING

Forecast: $1.35, revised upwards from previous $1.27 forecast.

What they say: "Positioning data since then [May calling a general election] — which covers trading activity to the week ending 25 April — shows only a modest reduction in speculative GBP shorts. That suggests speculators continue to hold GBP short position, built at a time when Cable was trading under 1.25. We think it would not take too much to force more aggressive short-covering — sending GBP/$ to the 1.32/1.34 region in the run up to the 8 June election."

"Should the Conservatives manage to secure a 100+ majority on 8 June, we would expect GBP to enjoy a modest bounce = largely on the view Theresa May would be able to marginalise the more ardent Brexiteers in her party," Turner said in a note on May 3.

Samuel Tombs, Pantheon Macroeconomics

Forecast: $1.25 by the end of the second quarter, but appreciation afterwards.

What they say: "Currency traders have judged that Prime Minister May will win a huge majority in the general election on June 8, loosening the grip of hardline Brexiteers on her negotiating position. Investors also have judged that the chances of an orderly transition deal with the E.U. have increased," Tombs wrote on May 2.

"The next election now will not need to be held until 2022, rather than 2020, alleviating the pressure on Theresa May to show that Brexit has been delivered in full immediately.

"We do not find these arguments compelling. It equally can be argued that a larger majority will reduce the influence of the minority of pro-EU Conservative MPs on the Government."

"Accordingly, we think that sterling's rally could go into reverse in the short-term, and we still forecast a $1.25 level for sterling at the end of Q2. Further ahead, however, we continue to see scope for sterling to appreciate. The U.K. public's zeal for Brexit likely will decline, persuading the Government to make as many compromises as required in order to maintain as much access to the single market as possible."

Pantheon is currently updating its currency forecasts, and this post will be updated once we have its new figures.

Most abbreviations are clearly derived from their root word, like "pt" for pint. But the abbreviation for pound is a very special exception. "lb" is an abbreviation of the latin word libra. Libra is widely known as the astrological sign for balance. But, it was also part of the roman unit of weight, libra pond, which translates to “pound weight." Britain derived pound from that expression as its unit of measurement and also as a term for its currency because centuries ago, a pound in money was considered equal to the value of a pound of silver. So when pound is abbreviated to "lb," it’s a call back to the original expression

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LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday took the strange step of effectively denying that the huge plunge in the value of the pound after Britain voted to leave the EU was not down to the Brexit vote.

Speaking at a press conference in London's Canary Wharf, May was asked about the drop in the pound's value since last summer and suggested that the pound was already starting to drop before the results of the vote came in on June 23.

"If you look at what happened to sterling, sterling had started to fall back before the referendum vote came through," she told reporters.

"So there have been adjustments to sterling. It isn’t just that sterling has gone down. We’ve seen currencies move around as currencies do."

May's claims have little basis in fact. Sterling traded at roughly 1.48 against the dollar — the most-watched measure of the currency — on the day of the referendum, fluctuating significantly as voting progressed.

It then dropped sharply in the evening, but only after the north-east city of Sunderland voted much more strongly in favour of Brexit than had been expected. Sunderland was seen as a bellwether of voting sentiment, so when it voted 61-39 to Leave, instead of the forecast 55-45, many began to believe Brexit would prevail.

As it became clear that the Leave campaign would take victory, the pound continued to plunge, eventually suffering the biggest single day drop of any major currency in history, losing close to 11% on Friday, June 24. To put that in context, a move of 1% in a major currency is usually considered substantial.

Here is the chart of how the drop looked on the day:

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LONDON — The pound has jumped above $1.30 for the first time since September 2016 on Thursday morning after better than expected retail sales figures from the Office for National Statistics suggested that British consumers are still spending.

Retail sales rose by 2.3% compared to the month of March, while on a year-to-year basis, sales were up by 4% against April 2016.

Those numbers compared to forecasts from economists of 1% monthly growth, and 2% y-o-y growth prior to the release.

This boosted sterling, with the currency jumping sharply against the dollar to trade at 1.3043 on the dollar around 10 minutes after the release, a gain of 0.5% from the open.

Here is the chart:

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LONDON — The pound is back above 1.30 against the dollar on Friday afternoon, almost entirely erasing the losses witnessed during a mini flash crash on Thursday evening.

By just before 1.00 p.m. BST (8.00 a.m. ET) sterling is up by 0.6% on the dollar to trade at $1.3010. The rise comes after the pound suddenly and sharply dropped last night, plunging below $1.29.

It is not entirely clear why sterling fell off a cliff, but some analysts speculated that the initial surge of the US dollar against the pound was down to the "reemergence of a CSPAN video from earlier in the month that some falsely interpreted as former FBI Director James Comey saying he was never pressured to end an FBI probe," as reported by  CNBC.

On Thursday, the pound initially jumped above $1.30 for the first time since September 2016 after better than expected retail sales figures from the Office for National Statistics suggested that British consumers are still spending.

Retail sales rose by 2.3% compared to the month of March, while on a year-to-year basis, sales were up by 4% against April 2016. Those numbers compared to forecasts from economists of 1% monthly growth, and 2% y-o-y growth prior to the release.

This boosted sterling, with the currency jumping sharply against the dollar to trade at 1.3043 on the dollar around 10 minutes after the release, a gain of 0.5% from the open.

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LONDON — The pound is struggling to stay above 1.30 against the dollar once again on Monday, treading water against the greenback, but pulling back from losses earlier in the day.

Sterling passed above the psychologically significant $1.30 level last week, but struggled to push above $1.31, and on Monday morning took another leg lower, largely thanks to dollar strength.

The world's most important currency fell sharply against most others on Friday after US Federal Reserve FOMC member James Bullard suggested that the Fed's current expectations for interest rate may be too aggressive. However, as currency markets reopened on Sunday night, the dollar started to strengthen once again, pushing sterling, as well as the yen and the euro, lower.

Having fallen to around $1.2970 in morning trade, sterling has pulled back above $1.30, but only just, and as of 3.00 p.m. BST (10.00 a.m. ET) is at $1.3020, down 0.01% from the open:

While the dollar's gains were the main reason for sterling's dip on Monday morning, there was also a political driver, after several polls over the weekend showed the Conservative Party's lead in election voting intentions slipping significantly. A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, for example, found that the Conservative lead has halved in the past week, with Labour rising to 35% and the Conservatives dropping to 44%.

Given that a strongly increased Conservative majority is largely seen as the most market-friendly outcome, any sign of a Labour resurgence is likely to give some in the market jitters.

"With UK politics and Theresa May back in focus this week, the upside is likely to remain limited with Sterling in store for some fresh punishment," FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga said in an email on Monday morning.

"With the pending second estimate GDP for the first quarter of 2017 likely to be unrevised, the main event risk for Sterling this week should be the inflation report hearings on Tuesday where BoE Mark Carney testifies on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliamentary Committee."

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The pound is dipping against the dollar and euro on Tuesday morning after a suspected terrorist attack in Manchester.

At least 22 people have died and over 50 are injured after an explosion at Manchester Arena after an Ariana Grande concert.

Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at SpreadEx, says in an email: "Investors are assumedly shaken by the events in Manchester yesterday evening, combined with the continued effects of the Tories’ election wobble."

The pound has barely moved following data that showed public sector net borrowing increased by £1.2 billion in April compared to the same time in 2016.

Sterling is down 0.20% against the euro at 10.10 a.m. BST (5.10 a.m. ET):

The pound is down around 0.11% against the dollar at the same time:

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The pound is gaining slightly on the dollar and the euro on Wednesday, after weakness in the prior session.

Sterling is up 0.05% against the dollar to $1.2971 at 7.45 a.m. BST (2.45 a.m. ET):

The pound is up 0.09% against the euro at 7.50 a.m. BST (2.50 a.m. ET):

The slight improvements come despite British Prime Minister Theresa May raising the terrorist threat level to its highest possible point, following the bombing of an Ariane Grande concert in Manchester on Monday night that left 22 people dead and 59 injured. 

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LONDON — The pound was falling against the dollar at midday on Thursday after early gains as investors digested the UK's first quarter GDP report, which undershot expectations.

Sterling passed above the psychologically significant $1.30 level last week, but has struggled against the greenback since then, largely thanks to dollar strength.

The pound is down 0.10% from the open, and as of 11.45 a.m. BST (6.45 a.m. ET) is trading at $1.2957:

FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga says in a note:

"Sterling was passive this week with prices hovering around 1.3000 as investors redirected their focus elsewhere. A vulnerable dollar did little to elevate prices higher and, as such, continues to highlight how the upside remains limited by Brexit anxieties.

"With uncertainty over Brexit still gripping sterling, downside risks remain present. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD could be displaying early signs of exhaustion with weakness below 1.2900 opening a path to 1.2775."

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